I’m in the same boat as you. I believe the model is an improvement of course but I’ve been successfully bug finding 0 day hunting and red teaming with models for the last two years and while that’s impressive I have a feeling that this doomsaying/overhype is mostly marketing being that’s being amplified by non-security folks.
I don't see why you think this evidence makes this release less likely to be real, rather than more. It's a pretty straightforward scenario: Opus is already good at finding vulns, they scaled it up another OOM, they got something which is good enough at finding vulns to be a major threat.
I think you misunderstood, I do think it's real. I just think they're being disingenuous that this is a new threat.
This is the same company that reported that their models were being used by a state actor to perform exploits in real-time -
https://www.anthropic.com/news/disrupting-AI-espionage
This was exactly the reason why GPT-2 was restricted for general release in 2019.
Check out section 4 - https://cdn.openai.com/GPT_2_August_Report.pdf
reply