You know, I wouldn't be surprised if the AI was less than 50% accurate. I'm not claiming that in general, but I'm also certain it would be possible to construct a dataset such that the AI would do far worse than a coin flip.
You know that it's not possible to do worse than a coin flip, right? If you're getting it 100% wrong, I'll just do the opposite of what you say, and have a 100% correct predictor.
The threshold isn't 50% because the distribution of human and AI written cases isn't naturally 50-50. So a coin flip will underperform always guessing the more frequent class. Where it gets interesting is if the base is unknown or variable over time or between application domains. Like, since AI written text is being generated faster than the human kind, soon guessing AI every time will be 99% accurate. That doesn't mean such a detector is useful.
When we say "coin flip" in these situations we mean "chance", ie the prior distribution. Otherwise a predictor of the winning lottery numbers that's "no better than a coin flip" would mean it wins the jackpot half the time.
Yup! My point is that the 'coin flip baseline' model that's as good as chance isn't actually trivial to create, for an unbalanced and time varying underlying distribution.
I hear this all the time, but to what end? If the input costs to produce most things ends up driving towards zero, then why would there be a need for UBI? Wouldn't UBI _be_ the performative economics mentioned?
I think of it like limits in math. The rate at which we'll be out of work is much higher than the rate at which prices will fall towards zero.
A performative/underemployment economy keeps everyone working not out of necessity, but to appease the sentiments of the wealthy. I'd argue that we passed the point at which wages were tied to productivity sometime around 1970, meaning that we're already decades into a second Gilded Age where wealth comes from inheritance, investment and connections (forms of luck) rather than hard work.
And honestly, to call UBI performative when billionaires are trying to become trillionaires as countless people die of starvation every day just doesn't make any sense.
We had a "smart person only internet". Then it became financially prudent to make it an "everyone internet", then we had the dot com boom, Apple, Google, etc bloom from that.
We _still_ have a "smart person only internet" really, it's just now used mostly for drug and weapon sales ( Tor )
I think the comment was showing that the project takes 9 weeks either way, but coming to that determination was much more confident and convincing with a functional demo versus a hand-wavy figma + guesstimate.
> was much more confident and convincing with a functional demo versus a hand-wavy figma + guesstimate.
Except it also blurs the lines and sets incorrect expectations.
Management often see code being developed quickly (without full understanding of the fine line between PoC and production ready) and soon they expect it to be done with CC in 1/2 the time or less.
Figma on the other hand makes it very clear it is not code.
Which is why I like balsamiq. It looks like hand sketches but can be interactive. I can create any UI for brainstorming in a matter of minutes with it. Once the discussion is settled, we can move to figma for actual UI design (colors, spacing,…).
> What's the minimum a business has to pay for a one hour shift?
Minimum wage. You can credit that with tips in some places, but you also have to credit the customer in those cases (not legally, but they aren't coming if you don't), so the net is the same.
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