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This letter is clearly written with dumb, naive retail investors in mind. Anyone familiar with Palantir’s history knows that their first headquarters was a building they took over from Facebook. The two companies are intertwined in many, many ways.


That is honestly my take away from this letter. Who, knowing anything about Palantir, reads this and is willing to trust anything they provide or give them your money? I know that S1's tend to be aspirational and the most positive/flattering framing possible but...this is just flat out an alternate reality. Anyone willing to build this level of false narrative about the history of a company is not one I would trust to deliver a true narrative about earnings or financial status.


Best investments of the 21st century:

1. Peter Thiel, Facebook, $500k

2. Peter Thiel, Donald Trump, $1m

No matter who wins the next election, Thiel and his buddies are guaranteed more contracts. Welcome to the new American plutocracy!


Yes. Since he is the Roger Stone of the PayPal Mafia, he’s not going to go away anytime soon.


Reminder to those who aren’t aware: Quora is a rich man’s hobby business. You aren’t going to get practical knowledge from their decisions.


Why has it become such an SEO driven BS filled website if the owner doesn't care about the financials? Why can't he pay people to curate the answers and generally drive up the quality?


They have to at least pretend it is a real business.


It was kind of interesting at first when the answers were good and there were some "celeb" participants.

But seems pretty stale now with lots of lead gen answers.

They claim huge traffic numbers which could be possible given the pretty good Google placements.

I don't really get it.


Can we go ahead and coin this the as 'The Yahoo Answers Effect' because it seems they are following in the exact same fashion. High quality question and answers, that slowly (and rapidly) devolves into SEO spam and useless commentary.


You can't throw out a comment like that and give no follow up. In what way is it a hobby business?


I’m guessing they’re referring to the fact that the CEO is very wealthy [1] and has self-funded the company, and suggesting that he’s not as concerned with the financials.

1: https://www.forbes.com/profile/adam-dangelo/#657861427cb4


It's not self-funded by D'Angelo. Quora has raised several hundred million dollars, the overwhelming share of that from traditional venture capital firms.

They also don't have the luxury of treating it like a hobby business, which is why they've been focused on quantity over quality for years now. They have to scale up the concept massively or find another business.

In contrast WikiHow is an example of a successful knowledge service that is operated with more of a focus on quality and less on quantity. They're not owned by venture capital firms and don't have to seek an exit or try to force growth at any cost. It's a route Quora could have taken if it weren't for the VC firms, now they have no choice. Their former competitor, eHow, took the paid spam content route and got destroyed for it.


> Quora Raises $50M At $400M From Peter Thiel, D’Angelo Puts In $20M Of His Own Money [0]

[0] https://techcrunch.com/2012/05/14/quora-raises-50-at-400m-fr...


Wikihow is garbage though. How can you seriously claim it's focused on quality? What is this shit: https://www.wikihow.com/images/thumb/f/f5/Laugh-Step-6-Versi... ?


Why link to the image out of context? https://www.wikihow.com/Laugh


The context doesn't help.


How is it any different from Stack Overflow or Yahoo Answers, except generalized and civilized?


About half the answers devolve into a sales pitch after a lengthy and confusing intro that seems to be written for SEO purposes only. The answers tend to be of substantially lower quality than what you'd see on SO too.

Yahoo Answers might be similar, sure, but that's not a positive comparison.


Inevitable when you try to turn something small and good into a “venture scale business”.


There are two criticisms here: one is that Quora is a bad business, and only operates because its CEO funds it, and second is that it is a bad source of information. The first is definitely an unanswered question at this point: revenue is low but the site has a vast amount of evergreen content which ranks highly on Google -- they have a ton of traffic but it's not clear to what extent they can monetize it.

The second is a matter of opinion, and whether you're looking at the average content or the best content. There is great content on Quora but the average question/answer is of course absolute dogshit.


so, like every VC startup


What do they look like! How do they function? How did they retool to make them so quickly? How do they compare to normal ventilators? What’s the UI on their control panels?

This sounds like a fairy tale to me, with the governor covering for Elon. But maybe they did, in fact, retool in 48 hours and deliver a working product.


They bought them from China[1]. It is not made by Tesla.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/californi...


How is this some sort of prescient statement? There have been movies made about this exact issue for decades. On a societal level, it is a bug marked WONTFIX similar to preparing for asteroid impact, the next Big One in SF (come on guys, we arent prepared for it), the next volcano, large scale terrorist attack using chemical weapons, and so on.

It seems nobody has a memory to remember that Microsoft hobbled local governments attempts to build and use open source software instead of paying their tax. In a way, you’re basically thanking Bill Gates for redistributing a small fraction of the money he’s stolen from global governments through the Microsoft monopoly.

If you think this is a conspiracy theory go talk to IT staff who worked in the German government in the late 90s.


“How is this some sort of prescient statement? There have been movies made about this exact issue for decades. On a societal level, it is a bug marked WONTFIX similar to preparing for asteroid impact, the next Big One in SF (come on guys, we arent prepared for it), the next volcano, large scale terrorist attack using chemical weapons, and so on.”

Exactly. A lot of people know the risks but we are not willing to pay for preparedness.


I know it seems unfair to hold Bill Gates forever unable to atone for those business practices, and I applaud him for what he is doing now. However, I still think microsoft was a net loss to society.


Why I feel in a few years we will be watching Independence Day and Oblivion in our caves and thinking "They warned us, but we didn't listen"?


For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.


The largest daily point loss in the Dow is -1,190. Today we briefly hit -2030.

The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the Dow is -7.32%. Today we briefly hit -7.9%.

The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the S&P 500 is -7.18. Today we briefly hit -7.2%.

If you don't classify that as a "crash," then please state your criteria for us to examine. It may not be a major crash, but it's definitely notable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...


Point losses don't make sense because it's percentages that matter. The other metrics you mentioned do suggest this is of course a noteworthy market crash, but whether that becomes a recession or is anything to seriously worry about long run is a different question.


They like to cite points in the news because the numbers are bigger and it generates more clicks.


The DJIA is asinine [0], please try not to perpetuate it. Look at any other index instead.

[0]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010917/opini...


Like how I looked at the S&P 500 in my comment?

And it's gotten worse, here's an update from CNN:

"The S&P 500 fell by 7.7%, blowing through the first circuit-breaker level that it tripped minutes after trading opened for the day. The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst day since December 1, 2008, when stocks fell by just over 9%.

The Nasdaq was down "only" 6.7%."


> The DJIA is asinine

It is superficially "asinine" because it is so narrow. However, the DJIA, S&P, Russell, etc all track/correlate each other.

> Look at any other index instead.

Or better yet, inlay the graphs of DJIA, S&P, Russell, Nasdaq, etc on the same chart for comparison. You'll see that the graphs all look similar. Meaning they all go up and down at around the same times.

It would seem that the broader indexes would better reflect the market as a whole. But in the real world, DJIA does good enough a job as the S&P, Russel, etc for a bird's eye view of the market.


Indeed. S&P 500 is still not even below of what it was in the end of 2018 after the last major instability. Partly thanks to this, 2019 was a marvelous year with stocks gaining almost 40% during a single calendar year.

My reading is we're in a normal correction that has been exacerbated by COVID and last night's massive fall (-30%) in oil price.


Just because it's "normal" doesn't mean that it's not a crash.


Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.


Almost nobody is drilling new oil wells, they stopped last year sometime. Almost nobody because there are still investors keeping one skeleton crew running just so they have expertise for when the oil price recovers.

Once a well is drilled the cost to drill the well is a sunk cost. You keep pumping oil if the cost to run the pumps is less than the price you get. Most people with oil are large enough to shut down some wells to keep the price up a bit - they harm their own profit in the short term though and still need to sell enough oil to break even.


OPEC has failed to reduce output to prop prices up, and they've crashed as a result.


Nobody being willing to make large cuts is different from nobody making cuts. The US is not a member of OPEC, nor are several other oil producing countries: they don't follow OPEC but may still reduce output.

There is rumor OPEC isn't cutting production because they believe they can undercut their competitors and put them out of business - I don't think that is their motivation, but it is something that can't be ignored.


A crash over the coming days wouldn't cause a recession so much as reflect the start of one.


> I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer

Probably go under?


Yeah, it's just getting started.


There’s a VC firm that already uses this model with their billion-dollar investments. It’s called Benchmark. Several of their former portfolio company founders can tell you all about how it’s worked out for them.


How about you tell us?

How did it work out?

You can’t allude to something juicy and say nothing.


They didn’t actually have $300m, it was a commitment based on milestones that weren’t met.


Until the richest YouTuber isn’t an adolescent set up to prey on his peers with unboxing videos, these measures are all half-hearted attempts at keeping the cash flowing. More regulation is probably needed.


Exactly what kind of regulation are you looking for if this is not enough?


> prey on his peers with unboxing videos

How is an unboxing video predatory?


Such videos are themselves ads, presented as if they're not.


Did you know that is how a lot of cartoons started? I recommend you watch https://www.netflix.com/mx-en/title/80224167 . (The Power of GraySkull documentary).

Cartoons like TMNT, Thundercats, Silverhawks, etc where done for the single purpose of selling toys.


you say this like all cartoons growing up weren't giant ads. Almost every cartoon of my generation was created by a toy company. He-Man, GI Joe, Transformers, etc.


That's probably because I didn't watch cartoons growing up! But yes, I am aware of that connection.


>prey on his peers with unboxing videos

What exactly is predatory about it?


They are literally video-length advertisements


I dunno, unboxing videos often satisfy (part of) the urge that made me want to get the thing in the first place. It's like the psychology finding that telling people about your goals makes you less motivated to achieve them. Part of my motivation to buy the thing was to get the experience of unboxing it; now I feel like I've already gotten that.


all cartoons that were aired were ads to sell toys.


How about regulation by the parents over what they allow their children to watch? Or is that too much of an inconvenience these days?


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