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I live in extremely fire prone areas.

Many of us are pretty damn okay at beating back the flame and controlling the flow of the worst of things away from homes, but nobody is perfect.

We don't expect every family and parent in these areas to have fire fighting skills, self evacuation is recommended.

Parents every where now find themselves surrounded by the delibrately laid gasoline of addictive social media and grooming risks et al. and it's infeasible to expect every parent be skilled in defensive cyber secuirty.

It's reasonable to expect communities to want simple barriers and means of protection, the existance of reasonable control and throttling options for parents.


I agree with that however I'm puzzled by your comment because in the context that you're responding to I don't think I said anything that would imply otherwise. Being particularly skilled in "defensive cyber security" isn't a requirement to avoid grooming of your child in the general case - some combination of communication, supervision, and filtering is.

> It's reasonable to expect communities to want simple barriers and means of protection, the existance of reasonable control and throttling options for parents.

I agree 100%! However ID verification is not a reasonable (or even particularly effective) solution to that. I apologize if I've misconstrued your intended meaning but given the broader context that's what it seems like you're implying.

Realistically there's no way to prevent grooming other than keeping tabs on your child. The least labor intensive (but also most intrusive) way to do that is probably whitelist parental controls and watching for unauthorized devices. It is not even remotely realistic to expect a communication platform to detect that a child is speaking with an adult they don't know (as opposed to one they do) and also that it isn't a benign interaction (such as a gaming group or etc) and then somehow act on that information (how?) without manufacturing an absurd dystopia in the process.

When it comes to filtering I think it would be reasonable to impose a standard self categorization protocol on all website operators. That would make non-whitelist filtering much more reliable (a boon to parents, educators, and employers) without negatively impacting privacy or personal freedoms.


Okay, in the specific upthread context;

* there are very few urban population clump on the planet that don't face the threat of child grooming and exploitation, both before and after the digital device explosion.

* that threat vector significantly increased and morphed with the spread of personal digital devices for children; the threat comes no longer from potentially any personal with contact in real life, it has now expanded to include potentially the entire digital world and now can be automated via groomGPT

* A simple "where were the parents" response on a per parent basis is unfair in the sense that spotting grooming in a digital device world is a difficult challenge .. even a simple constrained playground with stock babytalk language construction can be socially backdoored (See: "I want to stick my long-necked Giraffe up your fluffy white bunny" )

* Concerned parents will look for solutions, communities, at local, state, and federal levels should devote resources to providing solutions in informed contexts and graduated levels.

* Unaware parents will exist, and will likely dominate the demographics, or not?

* Is the correct _default_ social policy here (answer varies by country and culture) to shield the less cyber aware from the worst of the worst with filters ... that the better informed can bypass or deselect?

I guess where we diverge on PoV is where the perimeter of swiss cheese protection should extend to.


suspected alts .. like the pg example I also have similar accounts with similar match levels and I know I've never had a HN alt, nor do I recognise any of my suggested alts as familar accounts I've interacted with.

The same Chinese who in addition to wind and solar are also building many nuclear energy plants of several differing designs, have nuclear already as 20% (?? or so, IIRC) of their supply capacity and intend by plan to keep it that way?

For whatever reason, the Chinese are all for hybrid nuclear / renewables - and keeping modern more efficient coal plants in the picture until they no longer needed.

The "trending flat" is by design, they want coal and nuclear as still available fallback, nuclear also has national security benefits for deterrence, the expansion plans for nuclear (not major amounts more, just steady low growth) are still on their table, just throttled back somewhat for now and ready to ramp up as they choose.


Less than $20 million each - assuming build capacity and plans ...

High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellites Are Ready for Launch (2023)

  Editor's note: [ ... ] Airbus contacted Proceedings to note that the 2016 pricing estimates were correct at the time but that the company will be releasing new, lower estimates soon.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/february/hig...

Zephyr – down but definitely not out (2022)

  After an astounding 64 days aloft and a travelling a total more than 30,000nm, a British-built solar-powered UAV crashed just hours before it was due to break the ultimate world endurance record.

  The aircraft was the British-built solar-powered Airbus Zephyr UAV – one of a new breed of HAPS (high altitude, pseudo-satellites) – a new category of UAVs that are aiming for zero-emission, ultra-long- endurance flight as a kind of terrestrial satellite – able to loiter in the stratosphere for weeks or months at a time to monitor borders, watch shipping, relay communications or conduct atmospheric science.
https://www.aerosociety.com/news/zephyr-down-but-definitely-...


It's problematic for use in Essex as it works best for a small minority of the Essex population and has a much higher error rate for a typical sample of the Essex community.

Adendum: Essex Ethnicity breakdown- 85.1% White British · 5.2% Other White · 3.7% Asian · 2.5% Black · 2.4% Mixed · 1.1% Other · (2021).

from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex

ie: most accurate (however acccurate that is) for the men of 2.5% of the regions population

Not so accurate for 98.75% of the regions population.


They'll likely skate over the current turbulence that's already hitting many non-China countries.

China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now

  As other Asian economies race to conserve energy, China has huge reserves of oil and gas as well as alternative energy sources like wind and solar
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...

The policy in place for 36 years, that ended 11 years ago had pros and cons, but it hasn't backed them into a corner of inevitable decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy


Now linearly extropolate oil supply numbers from just prior to Ford's Model-T.

How many thousands of years pass before we can meet current 2096 oil demand?


That is why we need to stop with oil quickly, yes. Nuclear will do that, and people will pick nuclear if the renewables aren't there yet when oil runs out, which it is close to doing today.

No, that is why you made a gross error extrapolating grid battery growth.

> when oil runs out, which it is close to doing today.

Peak oil is a way off yet, and the reason we need to stop using sequestered carbon is because atmospheric insulation is increasing steadily as a direct result of fossil fuel usage. Not because of ground supply shortfall.

The current events highlight the supply chain issue - not a shortage of oil, it's a shortfall in "oil going anywhere".

> Nuclear will do that, and people will pick nuclear if the renewables aren't there

Again, country by country - nuclear makes sense in China, the US to a degree, France, the UK (despite the snails progress) to a degree ... but makes no sense in, say, Australia that has abundant sunlight, fresh air that moves, and near zero prior experience with nuclear power and plant construction (See: the very recent Australian CSIRO report on energy futures for Australia)


Australia has more guns now, and more guns per capita, than it did at the time it almost unified all gun laws.

It didn't "de-arm" - it brought all states and territories into near alignment on gun regulation.

If you're interested I can link to good footage of my actual IRL neighbour shooting 24x24 inch targets at 5,000 yards, here in Australia.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7owwTz7Z0OE

Alternatively you might be interested in Australian footage of feral control, taking down 800 oversized wild pigs in 4 hours from a helicopter.


It significantly de-armed.

Most importantly, Australia removed "self-defence" as a reason to own firearms. You have to be a farmer, hunter, or belong to a shooting club.

While the number of guns increased, the number of gun owners dropped. And the new regulations enacted this year drop the number of guns one can own even more.

There was a near-total ban on "military style" guns. See how the terrorists at the massacre last year were limited by the type of guns they had access to, only managing to kill 15 despite having all the time in the world. An Ar-15 or similar weapon could have been used to slaughter that 15 in under 15 seconds.


> It significantly de-armed

In the sense that there are more private registered guns than ever before in Australia, sure.

> Most importantly, Australia removed "self-defence" as a reason to own firearms.

More importantly, it unified gun laws - before the Port Arthur shooting, Queensland, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, probably the Australian Capital Territory were all unregulated.

Unregulated states with no border control effectively made the entire Federation of States unregulated.

Regulated states, at least the ones that I lived in prior to Port Arthur, didn't have "self defence" as a reason for owning gun - it was always about hunting, feral control, specific security (regularly carrying money) etc.

The last I checked, the emphasis was more on where you intended to use / carry a gun; shooting club (common), carry for security in street (rare), rural (property owner or have letter of authority to shoot from a property owner).

> There was a near-total ban on "military style" guns.

Sure .. they serve no real purpose, the only activity that requires high fire rates and larger magazines is pig shooting, maybe camel control, and rat shooting.

Rats can be shot with professional BB guns .. a better choice when shooting in sheds, silos, etc - no spark or risk of punching holes in tin walls.

If you're pig shooting in bulk, that's a contract shooting licence.


> they serve no real purpose, the only activity that requires high fire rates and larger magazines ...

Did the Australian ban of "military style" rifles include a blanket clause that covers all semi-automatic fire? Or is it an almost entirely aesthetic category as it tends to be whenever such measures are proposed in the US?

When it comes to automatic fire there's a rather famous US case where someone was ultimately convicted for possessing a shoelace (IIRC) attached to some fastening hardware. As to larger magazines, those probably don't even meet the bar for an introductory level highschool shop project.


From what I understand most semi-auto guns are banned in Australia, but of course they never had a ton of those to start with. But there are still plenty of pump action, lever action, bolt action, etc guns which aren't meaningfully less capable. Shooting twice as fast doesn't mean you can kill twice as fast because you can't aim twice as fast. Like the majority of guns Afgan insurgents had were 60 year old bolt-actions which were quite obviously still capable enough to be deadly even to the top military in the world.

> but of course they never had a ton of those to start with.

Really? The vast majority of weapons in the US are semi-auto so I find this difficult to believe.

> the majority of guns Afgan insurgents had were 60 year old bolt-actions

Were they? I would expect they were AK-47 and similar although I've never looked into it.


> so I find this difficult to believe.

Extrapolating from experience in the USofA to other countries in the world is generally not a good move.

The actual numbers, from the time, suggest maybe 10-15% of guns in Australia were "self loading"

( 20% of guns purchased back, not all were semi-automatic, a good many were old unwanted guns that now faced a registration fee if kept )

From a US academic type study that looked at the Australian (and other) gun buyback scheme post Port Arthur.

  Between 1996 and 1997,643,726 prohibited firearms were handed in.

  Prices were set to reflect "fair value" (market value). Individuals with permits could also turn in firearms that they had failed to register.

  Total public expenditures were about $A320 million ($U.S. 230 million33), approximately $A500 ($U.S. 359) per gun. The buyback program was financed by an additional 0.2 percent levy on national health insurance.

  Estimates of the total stock of guns were few and drew on limited survey data.

  Estimates ranged as high as 11 million, but the high figures had no known provenance. Gun Control Australia cited a figure of about 4.25 million, building on the only academic estimate, then roughly twenty years old.

  The most targeted population survey of gun ownership was conducted by Newspoll; the resulting estimate was approximately 2.5 million firearms in 1997, after the gun buyback.

  If that is approximately correct, it suggests that there were about 3.2 million firearms in 1996 and that the buyback led to the removal of approximately 20 percent of the total stock.

  In U.S. terms that would be equivalent to the removal of 40 million firearms
~ https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/pro...

( Note: I skimmed it, it looks more or less okay, several things caught my eye as problematic but the above passage looks pretty ballpark.

Further: I'm having busy days ATM - if I can claw out the time I might loop back to give a longer comment / reply to your upthread question(s) )


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