Way better than the random India dev output. I seriously don't know what everyone around here is doing. All I see are complaints while I produce the output of ten devs. Clean code, solid design.
Spend a few hours writing context files. Spend the rest of the week sipping bourbon.
I have enterprise plans for all AI services except Google. GitHub Copilot in VS Code is the best I have used so far. I hear a lot of complaints from people who are holding it wrong. In a single day I can have a beautiful greenfield app deployed. One dev. One day. Something that would have taken weeks with two teams bumping into each other. It's fully documented. Beautiful code. I read the reasoning prompts as it flows by to get an idea of what is going on. I work in phases and review the code and working product quickly after that. Minimal issues.
I'm an executive, the devs complaining are getting retrained or put on the chopping block.
My rockstars are now random contractor devs from Vietnam. The aloof FTE grey beards saying "I don't know, it doesn't work very good on X." Are getting a talking to or being sidelined/canned. So far most of my grey beards are adapting pretty well.
I'm not waiting on people to write code any more. No way in hell.
I haven't run a Google search in two years. Your comment just made me realize that. Doing a Google search is like trying to watch cable after being on YouTube for years.
I use different search engines than Google. They have similar issues, but some are better at ignoring the slop.
I just cannot justify the environmental impact and surveillance of using LLMs for everything. I prefer to summarize recent information myself. LLMs are not particularly good at it.
Funny thing about the cable analogy. Ever since all streaming providers have started cranking up prices and still forcing users to see hundreds of ads my family has been buying second hand dvds. So we have regressed from streaming to right after cable. I know one family that went back to cable, they do still watch YouTubes here and there but they got sick of it.
I'm starting to transition how we build software at our company due to the power of AI. No more: five code monkey contractors under a lead. Two top-notch devs are all that is needed now, unrestrained by sprints and mindless ceremonies. There is going to be a giant sucking sound in India.
I can't continue the current model. The dev that gets AI is done in five hours, the ones that don't are thrashing for the next two weeks. I have to unleash the good AI dev. I have the Product team handing us markdown files now with an overview of the project and all the details and stories built into them. I'm literally transforming how a billion dollar company works right now because of this. I have Codex, Claude and GitHub Copilot enterprise accounts on top of Office 365. Everyone is being trained right now as most devs are behind, even.
> No more: five code monkey contractors under a lead. Two top-notch devs are all that is needed now, unrestrained by sprints and mindless ceremonies.
This doesn't tell me anything. Two devs who cared and didn't have a bunch of pointless meetings could already, and regularly did, scoop the big tech teams.
There were always 2 ways to complete a ticket. One that did what the stakeholder wanted, and one that does what the ticket says.
But devs that care about the product and what the stakeholders need are rare, and finding one of them was already a significant bottleneck on most projects.
AI might be an accelerator, but we've yet to see if it's optimizing the part that was actually the bottleneck yet.
Ok... but extrapolating from this to "whole market" paradigms is speculative.
The (imo) question isn't how you produce software, but what the value of this software is. Are you going to make make/better software such that customers pay more, or buy more? Are those customers getting value of this kind?
The answer may be yes. But... it's not an automatic yes.
Instead of programming think of accounting. Say you experience what you are experiencing, but as an accountant. 6 person team replaced by 2-3 hotshots.
So... Maybe you can sell more/better accounting for a higher price. But... potential is probably pretty limited. Over time, maybe business practices will adjust and find uses for this newly abundant capacity.
Maybe you lower prices. Maybe the two hotshot earn as much as the previous team.
If you are reducing team size, and that's the primary benefit... the fired employees need to find useful emplyment elsewhere in the economy for surplus value to be realized.
Mediating all this is the law of diminishing returns. At any given moment, new marginal resources have less productive value than the current allocation.
I don't think the likelyhood of "electricity and Internet, running water grocery stores" being pulled out from underneath you (either by long term failure or prohibitive cost changes) is anywhere near as high as it is for subscription-based AI tools (at least not in the US).
That was a factor with electricity early on as it was first put to use. The flip side of the infamous "does it make the beer taste better?" adage/nonsense is that, per the story, back then you had breweries build their own power plants, because electricity was just that useful. It took a while for the market to start feeling comfortable with reliability of electricity supply and price point.
Except the dev that gets AI done in 5 hours will have a poorer mental model of the code. Whether that's important might or might not depend on whether that bites you in the ass at some point.
Don't agree - the dev is productive because they have a good mental model of the problem space and can cajole the agent into producing code that agrees with the spec. The trend is for devs to become more like product managers (which is why you see some whip-smart product managers able to build products _without_ human devs)
I believe these tools change the value of different skill sets in a very profound ways. Being good with rules of a programming language and syntax is no longer as valuable as it used to be.
Understanding the problem space is becoming more valuable. Strength in architecture of a solution is another skill that is becoming very valuable.
We are close to getting to a point where someone with overall general (and perhaps not very detailed) understanding of arch and design and a good understanding of the problem space and having a good taste in usability will be able to create awesome solutinos.
I can't wait to see these solutions being created by one or two person teams.
If you write a program in Python or JavaScript, you have a terrible mental model for how that code is actually executed in machine code. It's irrelevant though, you figure it out only when it's a problem.
Even if you don't have a great mental model, now you have AI to identify the problems and generate an explanation of the structure for you.
No, but you have a great mental model of the interface between your problem domain and the code, which is where you can affect change.
Outsourcing that to an AI SaaS might be ok I guess. Given past form there's going to be a rug-pull/bait-and-switch moment and dividends to start paying out.
> It's irrelevant though, you figure it out only when it's a problem.
For the past decade people have been clawing their eyes out over how sluggish their computers have become due to everything becoming a bloated Electron app. It's extremely relevant. Meanwhile, here you are seemingly trying to suggest that not only should everything be a bloated, inefficient mess, it should also be buggy and inscrutable, even moreso than it already is. The entire experience of using a computer is about to descend into a heretofore unimaginable nightmare, but hey, at least Jensen Huang got his bag.
That is the doom side. However AI has found and fixed a lot of security issues. I have personally used AI to improve my code speed, AI can analyze complex algorithms and figure out how to make them much faster in ways I can do as a developer, but it's a lot of work that I typically wouldn't do. Even just writing various targeted benchmarks to see where the problems really are in my code is something I can do, but would be so tedious I often would not bother. I can tell AI to do it and it will write those.
Only time will tell which version of the future we end up with. It could be good or bad and we will have to see.
In terms of runtime performance of applications, AI is a net win. You can easily remove abstractions like Electron, React, various libraries. Just let the AI write more code. You can even do the unthinkable and write desktop native again.
Yep, my father, with no business training or college was funded by my grandfather and was in business for years, decades. He ultimately failed without any savings and died in poverty. Being a small business owner was the only job he ever had.
My grandfather was similar--he was the first one to leave the farm life and tried several different careers and businesses. He worked for a railroad, was a realtor, owned a lumber yard, and lastly owned a delicatessen. The lumber yard nearly destroyed the entire family because he would sell on credit and then contractors failed to pay up on time. It was a huge disaster and the the thing is, this was way before the Home Depot national type chains or the "84 Lumber" regional type chains and if he had had any business acumen at all, he could have been the franchise. People don't know what they don't know. Anyways, my dad worked for my grandfather for free for several years and screwed up his life quite a bit doing so in order to "save the family" and I think my dad has told me this damn story every single time I have called him on the telephone for at least the past 30 years. His complex over the whole situation must be enormous!
This is why I never started a business myself. I figured it was a family curse to fail at business.
Really? Logic wouldn't dictate that if I'm up 300% or more over two years and everyone is starting to get jittery about an AI bubble that perhaps I should pull out now and await the pullback? If it happens in a year, and I can buy back in at a 15-20% discount, that is also a return!! Do you hold for possibly another 5%? That doesn't make any sense. Your cash gets 4% a year just waiting--paid monthly.
Yeah, that you could do, though even then if the timing is sufficiently uncertain you might be in trouble, and it's particularly risky in a time of stubbornly higher-than-ideal inflation. If you happened to have a bunch of Hype-y AI Ltd, then sure, probably. Far less clearly a good idea if you just have the S&P500, though.
It's further complicated by the fact that most of the worst examples of AI hype are not public. Like, if and when the bubble bursts, the hyperscalers will likely get burned, but they're not going to go to zero or anywhere near it.
And that's assuming you already have stocks; it's very different, risk-wise, from shorting or buying puts.
> Your cash gets 4% a year just waiting--paid monthly.
Spend a few hours writing context files. Spend the rest of the week sipping bourbon.