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All of SapaceX rockets waste close to half their payload capacity on extra fuel for landing, extra equipment for landing, and they still have a 100% failure rate on every super-heavy launch they've ever attempted. SpaceX has blown up more rockets in the last year than NASA has in its entire history. NASA's super heavy rockets have been working successfully since 1967. NASA did build the first single-stage-to-orbit rockets that also successfully landed, but it immediately realized that was a huge waste of resources. Instead, they put parachutes on rockets and then refurbished them instead. So NASA gets double the payload capacity for free. The boosters currently strapped to the SLS that's about to go to the Moon are the same ones that previously took space shuttles to orbit in the 90s. NASA has been to the Moon and Mars; SpaceX has never made it to either, and just last week Elon said they've officially given up on going to Mars, and they're hoping to make it to Moon in another decade instead. NASA is going next month. SpaceX is just vaporware being run by a drug addict whose only goal is to sell it to the public markets before the house of cards comes down.


> SpaceX has blown up more rockets in the last year than NASA has in its entire history.

SpaceX's number of successful launches last year exceeded the total number of launches by all other U.S. agencies over the past decade.


Only with LEO launches, and the soviet rockets from the 90s are still cheaper and more reliable at that. Enormous subsidies and sanctions against Russia are the only thing pushing anyone to spend more on inferior Falcon rockets.


It would be great to have some actual numbers. How did reuse work out for Falcon 9? How much does the reused boosters for SLS cost? What's the cost and performance of an expendable Starship vs SLS?


It's not possible to compare, because while the SLS just got back from the Moon and is about to go back; SpaceX has never had a single successful super-heavy launch. Now that Elon has officially given up on Mars and decided to spend the next decade trying to figure out how to get to the moon, we may see some progress. All he has to do is put down the drugs and catch up to the NASA of the 1960s.


Going to Mars takes about the same delta-v as the moon.

SpaceX launches 80% of the world's mass to orbit, they probably know what they're doing.

Starship is an extremely hard problem, and their aim is to reduce cost of getting mass to orbit by another 10x after Falcon 9 did the same.

Falcon 9 needs about 4% of fuel to land on a ship, 14% to return to launchpad

Why would you say they've had 100% failure rate? What did you think the reason was to launch and how did it fail?


Surely the could put a traditional upper stage on Super Heavy and just go directly to the moon, no? I’m not sure what the obsession with second stage reuse is, because you lose almost all your margin.


Falcon Heavy (as its name implies) is not capable as a super-heavy lift vehicle. Past GTO, it can only carry 18 tons. You need more than double that to reach the Moon and come back, as NASA did in the 1960s.


I'm not sure what the obsession with airplane reuse is. Why not just build a new one for each flight?


You don’t gain additional margin throwing away an airplane. Reuse is a lovely idea but the rocket equation is a harsh mistress.


Space X cares way more about reusability than the moon, they're not actually in a race to the moon. Step 1: build the best general solution. Step 2: do everything


You're confused. Elon said two weeks ago that they have given up on Mars and the Moon is the goal they're currently working on. He said it will probably take them another decade to catch up to NASA of the 1960s by reaching the Moon with a real super-heavy rocket that actually works.


He said moon first, not no Mars. And a decade to build a moon city, not to get there.

However what people say and their real reasons aren't always the same.

I assume Issacman went around to everyone and convinced them to say they're all switching on the moon, add another test flight to delay things, and in return they'll switch to using Starship in the future as they will cancel Block 1B of Artemis


They’ve already caught and reused a Super Heavy and had multiple successful soft landings in water with Starship.


No, it's never made it to orbit.


A KPI is an ethical constraint. Ethical constraints are rules about what to do versus not do. That's what a KPI is. This is why we talk about good versus bad governance. What you measure (KPIs) is what you get. This is an intended feature of KPIs.


Excellent observations about KPIs. Since it’s intended feature what could be your strategy to truly embedded under the hood where you might think believe and suggest board management, this is indeed the “correct” KPI but you loss because politics.


Radxa has rpi clones with better specs that already do that


If Radxa would slow down their rollout of another new hardware board with vastly different target markets every month or so, they could wind up with a few really well-supported boards.

But as it is, you have to love tinkering with Linux or reading things across forums, blog posts, GitHub issues, and Discord to get a given Radxa board going nicely. It can be done, but it still takes too much effort for many.


idk but sounds like they might be run by designers and also they might be outsourcing PCBA. Just doing one batch simplifies operations by a lot. Not that I think it's commendable to do so...


Sounds like the opposite of a RPi clone.


This brings up a point many will not be aware of. If you know the random seed and the prompt, and the hash of the model's binary file; the output is completely deterministic. You can use this information to check whether they are in fact swapping your requests out to cheaper models than what you're paying for. This level of auditability is a strong argument for using open-source, commodified models, because you can easily check if the vendor is ripping you off.


Pretty sure this is wrong, requests are batched and size can affect the output, also gpus are highly parallel, there can be many race conditions.


Yup. Floating point math turns race conditions into numerical errors, reintroducing non-determinism regardless of inputs used.


This is an obvious third-factor for poverty and marginalization. Air pollution exposure is the most classic example of unequal protection from harm in environmental justice. Alameda county did a study on this that found as an isolated, direct-result of unequal exposure to air pollution, black people live 15 years less than white people on average in Alameda County alone.


If you could see long term PM2.5 averages and how they vary, we'd approach as a national crisis.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266601722... (this groups methods can be substantially improved).

Having done some additional follow on work in the space -- the results definitely do not follow socioeconomic boundaries as one might expect.

Roads are a huge contributor.


Roads being a huge factor also plays into socioeconomic factors though, at least in some places. Take New York City for example, where the off-ramps for highways were purposefully planned to let traffic out in larger numbers in impoverished areas to keep the noise and pollution minimal for the more affluent burrows.


Absolutely. Though, do note that, at least in the US, road network locations change slower than gentrification changes a neighborhoods socioeconomics.


I find this very hard to believe... Mind sharing that study?


Same. I hail from a particularly polluted (compared to the rest of the EU) country, so PM2.5 over 80µg/m3 during the entire heating season, NOx constantly above 50µg/m3 in cities due to old diesels with anti-pollution devices turned off or removed entirely and the overall effect is said to be a 3-6 years shorter life expectancy.

It checks out compared to countries without these issues, so 15 years to me sounds exaggerated, especially if we're talking about areas close to each other.

Such a huge shortening normally involves heavy metal pollution of the drinking water and soil.


Yeah, I mean, how do they identify the causal effect here? It's obviously not easy, because polluted areas are also poor areas, and poor people live in poor areas (and have other problems).

It would be nice if the article had mentioned this issue. A metastudy of lots of bad correlational studies is just garbage in garbage out. So, did they address the issue?

There are ways round it, by the way. As a recent review said:

"it is unclear why federal ISAs that are the input into all regulatory analyses tend not to incorporate the emerging body of evidence on the effects of air pollution on health outcomes from the economics literature despite the additional rigor imposed by the emphasis on causal inference."

https://www.annualreviews.org/docserver/fulltext/resource/15...


It's not surprising that poverty affects life expectancy but what I find hard to believe is that poor air quality shortens life expectancy by a full 15 years.


From a quick google search I'm guessing this study: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11097628/


That sounds incredibly obvious on the face of it though ?

Having the study at hand is nice of course, but environnemental factors being alleviated through money and discriminatory policies is rampant enough I don't get the surprise.

People using high quality water filters or straight buy clean water tanks in areas where tap water is bad, getting better indoor air filtering, blocking construction of pollution sources to move them further away (near poorer areas) in the county, redlining/manipulateing zoning rules to make it systematic etc.

It's a old as humans.


15 years disparity in life expectancy exclusively attributed to air quality is not incredibly obvious. To put this in perspective, nationwide average disparity in life expectancy is 5 years between Black and white people. Triple that amount, exclusively attributed to air quality, is a substantial claim.


Exactly. Even smoking doesn't shorten life expectancy by that much (it's 10 years).


Smoking is voluntary, partly self-adjusting (willingly or not you'll reduce smoking as you get worse), composition is regulated and that habit only starts at a later stage in life.

None of that applies to PM2.5 kind of pollution.


For an area that has well known air pollution issues it doesn't sound far-fetched.

Comparing to the national average helps put it into perspective but doesn't make sense as sanity check. Flynt could be a better data point.


Literally the poor people in London lived in the East End because it was downwind.


London has one-way wind?


Prevailing wind directions are common though? Coriolis effect and earth rotation and continuously moving energy source in the sky and all that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevailing_winds

That's why we learned to look at on wich side of the trees the moss grows to find the compass directions.


Yes. Marine environment: the wind blows largely off the Atlantic, across the whole UK.


Yeah, that tracks with a lot of the environmental justice research


On the other hand life expectancy of richest people in US is on par with poorest in EU. (Poverty is still factor within those regions).


This is simply not true, at least if you consider all of Europe.


Not sure what "all of Europe" are you talking about when I was talking about EU.


Even if you average across the whole EU, this is not true. Western and Northern EU countries are the exception to the rule.


I don't believe this, show me your stats. The poorest region is Bulgaria, with life expectancy of 75. Just looking at the American Congress (which isn't even composed of the richest people), few people there die at mere 75 years of age.

Also, here in the EU, life expectancy varies a lot. Interestingly, not-so-rich countries such as Italy and Spain win over richer Austria, Germany and Denmark by a year or so.


Diet is most likely a big factor. Despite being less rich, Italy and Spain have decent healthcare systems, and traditionally Mediterranean diets tend to include more vegetables and less saturated fats than cuisines in those Northern countries, and even poor people have access to those healthy options.


I was wrong about EU in general. It was about poorest in western Europe.

https://www.brown.edu/news/2025-04-02/wealth-mortality-gap


...in one single cohort-based study that only looked at around 10K deaths between the United States and 16 European countries, not the EU or all of Europe.

Life expectancy in the EU varies a lot by country. Someone born in Sweden has a life expectancy over ten years longer than someone born in Latvia.

That one study feels like a paper that was engineered to make headlines and social media sound bites, not to be an accurate look at the entire population.


Do you think your comment has more value than one study?


No. It's because large models have leveled off and commodified. They are all trending towards the same capabilities, and openai isn't really a leader. They have the most popular interface, but it really isn't very good. The future is the edge, the future is smaller, more efficient models. They are trying to define and delineate a niche that needs datacenters where they can achieve rents.


two p40 cards together will run this for under $300


We already have an interplanetary internet called the NASA Deep Space Network. Understanding it's limitations and challenges is a good way to start thinking about this.


what does this have to do with the viking god of war like its not that hard to come up with some relevant name


The GPUs themselves are named after norse mythology (utgard, midgard, bifrost, valhall), the driver names have been related to those (panfrost, panthor, and now tyr). And the whole theme comes from the fact that the GPUs originate from Norwegian company (later acquired by ARM)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mali_(processor)


This shows how much I know about vikings. I immediately thought of Tyr from Roddenbery's Andromeda series: https://andromeda.fandom.com/wiki/Tyr_Anasazi


TL;DR: "[I need to feel special and different despite doing exactly the same thing everyone else is doing.]"


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