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I am afraid that in a total war, all available resources will be used.

UMA's security model assumes the cost to corrupt the oracle exceeds the profit from corruption. It is quite interesting because it doesn't consider the Polymarket side at all in the calculation.

Doesn't this whole model break down when the Polymarket market far exceeds UMA's market cap?


Wouldn't UMA tokens increase in value proportionally to Polymarket's market cap, considering they're basically a unit of control of that market cap?

I am pretty low confidence here but I think in theory it should but in practice there is no mechanism enforcing that?

UMA's current market cap is $68M. There are some Polymarket markets far exceeding that.


Not really, because unless you control 50% of all tokens they are worthless.

Only if you assume literally all other tokens are voting against you

> - (~2023) Ok, it can write a full function, but it can't write a full feature.

The trend is definitely here, but even today, heavily depends on the feature.

While extra useful, it requires intense iteration and human insight for > 90% of our backlog. We develop a cybersecurity product.


In the last 90 days France's CO2 footprint is at 78% of Iceland's.

Also, what lessons learned in Iceland, Norway or Albania should we apply in central Europe? We don't have their geothermal and hydro potential (all your examples are not solar+wind but hydro primarily).


Right at this moment Germany's electricity mix has 364gCO2eq/kWh carbon intensity, France is at 21. That is because 37% of Germany's production comes from gas and coal.

Even from an environmental standpoint, France is doing much better than Germany and that is thanks to nuclear.

Also, by closing operating power plants, Germany weakened European energy production at the time when we geopolitically need it the most.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/DE/live/fifteen_min...


Still not Habecks legacy. This was decided under Merkel.

Besides, CO2eq are often wrongly measured with nuclear energy, ignoring building emissions and effect on the water temperature in rivers (every summer more and more plants need to shut down because of this), etc. Even if this would be done right, there are again and again longer periods where Germany exports energy to France because their reactors are often in maintenance. In the end I would say it is always a bad idea to rely on only one technology to a large degree. Only a well done mix makes you resiliant.


> Only a well done mix makes you resiliant.

I agree on this point, me not being anti-Nuclear doesn't mean I am anti-wind or solar. Every country has different circumstances, I live in a landlocked country with mild mountains, temperate climate and modest rivers. In our case nuclear energy seems like the most reliable and scalable option. For countries with huge coastline off-shore wind absolutely makes sense, simialrly with solar.

> Besides, CO2eq are often wrongly measured with nuclear energy, ignoring building emissions.

I think this point is overestimated. Based on a brief search, studies show nuclear carbon intensity around 6-12g, and the building emissions just around 13% of total lifetime emissions [1].

> there are again and again longer periods where Germany exports energy to France because their reactors are often in maintenance.

Valid point but the 2022 French nuclear "disaster" hasn't repeated at that scale so far. In recent years France is a net exporter to Germany. I can imagine that as with many problems in renewables having technical solutions the water temperature problem is also solvable technically.

[1] https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/article...


How strong correlation is there with energy exports from Germany and the status of France nuclear reactors? From a casual look, exports seems to be correlated with weather and access to excess energy, rather than demand from neighboring countries. I would like to see some support that "Germany exports energy to France because their reactors are often in maintenance", rather than Germany export energy to France because windy/sunny weather is producing excess energy.

Looking at Denmark, their export and imports have little correlation to neighboring countries demand or supply. They will try exporting if the wind farms produce excess energy, and they will try importing energy when demand exceed supply. Neighboring countries demand will mostly only have impact on export price.


> Also, by closing operating power plants, Germany weakened European energy production at the time when we geopolitically need it the most.

Ironically that was France which needed to shut down a lot of its nuclear reactors in 2022 and 2023 due to repairs. So according to your own logic France "weakened European energy production at the time when we geopolitically need it the most."

Here in Switzerland the reason given for the "energy crisis" was also mostly France as Switzerland usually imports a lot of energy from France.


Looks like that maintenance did a LOT of good. In 2024, France’s net electricity exports (gross exports - imports) reached ~ 89 TWh, a record.

France's total nuclear generation was ~ 361.7 TWh in 2024. It is expected to be even above that in 2025.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-marke...

France is currently the nation that exports the MAXIMUM electricity in Europe.


I was in such a role and am now being pushed out of it (promoted to PE).

What I really love about it is the leverage. In a technical domain with a good core team it is almost like running your small company.


Its tricky to use statistics for personal decisions. In general something might be correct but not for your specific subgroup. I know many people who changed for worse.

If you are in a bad position then change, but if you like the company and role, don’t take it for granted and think carefully.

This advice is consistent with the broad statistic if more than half of the sample is currently in “bad position”.


Since we are talking about BigTech, I can’t imagine to a first approximation any IC up to and including senior or a low level manager being at any BigTech company for a reason besides wanting to maximize their income via cash and RSUs.

Does anyone stay in the same position/team for more than two or three years even at the same company?


> WWI in which all sides were equally guilty for all of it.

Not true, while Germany was not solely responsible, it and Austria-Hungary were much more responsible than others.


Yes, its pretty simple. Different audiences prefer different style. Experts prefer brevity and jargon, they don't need explanations of concepts they already understand. Beginners prefer less jargon and inline explanations as they'd need to hunt for references otherwise to understand the text.


@paulg does not seem like a hardcore MAGA supporter based on his tweets.


Indeed he asked people to vote Kamala. He is friendly with Musk though, or at least was.


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