China buys Russian oil via pipeline and tanker, so they’re not entirely dependent on Gulf crude. They also have more levers to pull at the state level to reduce civilian demand on petroleum. Along with current electrification/alternative energy efforts, that could be a significant reduction in demand. Finally, China has operated nuclear subs for decades, and is actually building a nuclear aircraft carrier. China likely does not think it can compete head-to-head with the US in a conventional naval confrontation, and has invested heavily in missile and drone technology, along with other asymmetric capabilities. It would certainly be painful if the US took over the Persian Gulf, but likely not debilitating.
I did find it interesting that in both Venezuela and Iran, Chinese radar and air defense did not hold up so well, but they’re at least getting a lot of real world test data from it.
The problem is European countries have been on a path towards reducing local refineries, and replaced with imports from Gulf States. ~50% of jet fuel, and up to ~25% of diesel was sourced from the Gulf States, which is now blockaded by the war or offline.
Agree with you that refined products shortage will have the most economic impacts. Gulf States were also the global swing supplier of refined products, with ~20% of waterborne cargos. With Asian refineries (China/Japan/South Korea) also dependent on heavy/medium crude feedstock stuck in the Gulf, fuel production is getting hammered right now from both sides. Countries with local refining capacity will temporarily weather the storm a bit better, but with how interconnected global trade is, short fuel supply will impact everyone, even if its indirectly through higher costs of shipping/transportation/manufacturing/fertilizer, etc.
Spec ops tend to be more averaged sized, with denser builds (as opposed to bulkier muscle mass)(1). Although, quick caveat, take a look at old photos of Vietnam War era special forces vs modern late GWOT; the difference in average muscle mass is rather stark.
Historically, military selection emphasized calisthenics and load carrying capacity (body armor/weapons/rucks) + endurance. Although modern assessments have somewhat shifted towards weightlifting components, calisthenics/rucking are still a major focus. There is generally a disadvantage with height, where longer limb length creates more leverage to overcome, which is a disadvantage in both calisthenics and moving external weight around.
One potential knock-on impact of the strait being effectively closed, is that at some point the gulf states will be forced to shut-in production as local storage fills up and production can’t be exported. That combined with war damage to critical transport/export infrastructure will cause a lag where production can’t meet global demand even when the strait re-opens. Turning oil wells back on is not like flipping on a light switch.
To add to your comment, ~20%-25% of global oil production passes through the AG (Iran is only ~4% of current global production) @ ~21mbpd. The longer that oil can’t get out (Saudi’s have a 5mbpd pipeline to red sea, but only 2mbpd loading capacity), the quicker it will erase the current oil glut and eat into inventories. Most of the discounted oil China has been buying from Iran/Russia has actually been going into inventory. The strait itself is a narrow channel, and the main risk is mines and underwater drones. Sinking a few tankers in the strait would cause a lot of headaches.
Ukraine has been using cheap interceptor drones (models Sting/Bagnet/etc) combined with sensor networks to intercept slower prop driven Geran-2. Then Russia upgraded to jet engine on Geran-3, with higher speeds that are more difficult for prop interceptors to catch. Ukraine switched back to using machine gunners from aircraft to help take those out until they develop faster intercept drones.
Having grown up in churches that began to embrace NAR tenets in the 90s-00s, this particular eschatology gained a foothold across a wide swath of denominations from non-denom/charismatic/baptist all the way to methodist/CoC. In my experience it’s less a retreat from society, and more of a particular strain of religious fundamentalism that seeks to draw a line in the sand against “secular” culture. Most NAR organizations are lead by a “prophet” or leader who followers believe directly hears from God (aka a new apostle). A predominant theme among NAR churches is increasing christian influence in government (i.e. “7 Mountain Mandate” for example). I also recently learned about catholic integralism, which shares similar dominionist goals with NAR, and has gained momentum in the US.
You can also find orange (or skin contact) wine in the US at smaller boutique natural wine shops, which are becoming more common. Orange wines are cultivated in Sonoma and other wine regions in the US as well.
>If you really need something bigger renting a trailer or truck is dirt cheap
It’s neither convenient nor cheap to rent a trailer in much of the US. Major cities have options, rural areas less so. Full disclosure I have a mid-sized pickup, but I recently looked into renting a trailer for a landscaping project that was above the weight limit for my truck. First issue I ran into was that there were not any trailers available for rent anywhere near my location. Second issue was that after factoring in driving distance + rental cost + dump fees, it was ~ the same price just to pay a junk company to haul the materials…and it was not cheap. Anecdotally, my pickup was cheaper than most other vehicle options at the time I bought it, my commute is short (so fuel economy is less an issue), and as a homeowner I use the bed to haul something at least once/month (Unfortunately kei trucks weren’t available at the time). So the cost/benefit/convenience factor of owning a truck over renting a trailer works for me. YMMV.
Yeah, I cannot speak for rural US as much, I live in a large metropolitan area, and I would estimate around 1/5th cars here are pickups. You can rent a truck from Home Depot for as low as $100 a day.
> I find routine and habits over schedule and calendaring
I find the same. To keep myself honest, I built a simple habit tracking sheet (grid paper; 1 page/month; x axis list items; y axis list days). Keep it simple to reduce friction, no more than a handful of items, and try to stack habits and routines. Focus on anchor points of the day like sleep/work/exercise/nutrition/meal prep/tidy house. I’ll also track non-action items like coffee/alcohol/anxiety/video games/book reading, etc. Include the process as part of end of day wind down and reflection.
I did find it interesting that in both Venezuela and Iran, Chinese radar and air defense did not hold up so well, but they’re at least getting a lot of real world test data from it.
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