Genuine question: do prediction markets open up a new revenue stream for TheNumbers.com?
Specifically: they suspect that the motivation for trying to hack their site (for at least some people) is that they wanted early access to numbers that folks were betting on in prediction markets. Since they've got those numbers they can just bet on them, then benefit from their perfect knowledge.
On the one hand this does seem incredibly unethical (it's clearly insider trading).
On the other hand the CEO of PolyMarket has said that insider trading is part of the point of PolyMarket: https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?si=ztyTtgjeHSJbNjSZ&t=1566
This is genuine, noob question: how is this different from AWS?
I get that they're in very different businesses, but for both don't they have the issue that once a client gets big enough the client might decide to move the services in-house? Based on how much of the internet went down when that AWS data center crashed the answer is clearly "No" for AWS.
Is that because of physical, real-world infrastructure? Are there no open versions of their APIs? Is it too hard to migrate to something else once a client has achieved that size?
I would say "it's risky and requires a lot of labor to migrate without corruption, loss of data" and also minimizing downtime. Sure anyone can run pg_backup, but can you do it across 90 databases? Can you do it live? Can you coordinate rollout of the process, cutover, and monitor for failure? What's the cost of egress for this? Is the team your A-team or the B-team? Can you trust this to the B-team? Is it worth having this team spend all this time on a migration rather than, say, getting something new set up, or optimizing performance on an existing system?
I'm a database guy, but the same migration argument is presumably also extra work for (say) blob storage, networking, etc.
Since LLMs are stateless by their current implementation, switching to "the same open-weight model running in a different datacenter run by a different vendor" is "just" switching the API endpoint. (If they are the exact same shape, it's fine, if they differ somehow, there's perhaps some work to do there, fixing things and monitoring for failures on switch-over)
There are several open APIs it seems and OpenRouter.ai is doing a fine job making a commodity out of models and datacenters.
I don't think it's that difficult. Their servers are stateless too. S3 is easy to migrate.
Database is more difficult, but tons of people have done it successfully.... meanwhile people who host their own LLMs are relatively small in number in comparison.
Most companies don't do their own data centers mainly because it is more expensive and less reliable. It's something they can just pay for the problem to go away. The calculus for hosting your own LLM is probably similar.
Even Stripe who built their own coding agents and has tons of money/resources still decides not to host their own LLMs.
Still, many people will prefer open-weight models. It is similar to how we prefer linux but still use AWS/Render/and whatever. It doesn't lock us in, and we can move providers if we want to.
> This is genuine, noob question: how is this different from AWS?
AWS owns the hardware, and doesn't write a lot of the software.
AWS actually is kind of the opposite - it often takes open source software (e.g. Apache, Mongo, Kubernetes) and then makes money off it by hosting it itself (with some enhancements etc).
If they do develop their own software (e.g. with S3) they don't give away the source code so others can deploy it, as that's part of their secret sauce.
In this scenario, where they would be offering the open source model and then offering the same model hosted, there isn't really a moat here - they would be leasing the hardware from a company like AWS, and adding a margin, but it woudl be trivial for another company (or Amazon) to take their same model and offer it for the same price or less.
I'm not a lawyer and I think this varies state by state, but I think that in general anyone is allowed to record in public spaces.
I think the general idea is that if you could (legally) go stand in that public space (sidewalks, roads, parks) and watch something happen then you're allowed to record what you see.
This is probably good - I think it's the basis of being able to record misbehavior (by private citizens and/or the police), for example.
In contrast you're generally not allowed to record stuff happening in a private space unless everyone's been informed that this will happen.
This is why you'll see signs saying "Warning - this place is under surveillance" signs on every single door going into a corporation that wants to use security cameras.
You are allowed to record stuff happening in private spaces depending on the situation and state you are in.
For example, you could photograph or record the dance floor in nightclub since dance floor is very public. However, the bathroom would not be allowed. Of course, the venue could make up rules and eject you for doing so.
Most of "Warning signs" are deterrence, maybe someone will behave better if they know cameras are watching. Also, it's cheap insurance dictate by the lawyers who think "Signs are 100 bucks total but someone filing privacy lawsuit is thousands, put up the signs."
"You are allowed to record stuff happening in private spaces depending on the situation and state you are in."
The part about "depending on the situation and state you are in." is doing _a_lot_ of work there. Here in WA state, for example, if you go into a private meeting and record the thing without getting folks consent first then you're guilty of a misdemeanor.
Another example: in my old neighbor we had a nuisance neighbor who we all thought was engaged in Crimes, Plural. The immediate neighbor wanted to put up a video camera to catch them in the act but was told that they can't film the neighbor's yard directly. Filming their own yard and the field of view happens to catch something in the adjacent yard might get by a judge, maybe. So even if you can stand on the sidewalk and see past the trees into someone's backyard that doesn't mean you can film it.
(To be clear - I think this probably a good rule. I don't want folks filming me in my backyard :) )
Clearly, the tl;dr is that if this really matters to someone then they should check with a lawyer first.
In Germany we have the concept of informational self-determination for a long time, so that I am not able to follow those scaling laws easily. The problem is not the single image or video (which can be legal), but the extension over space and time. This creates a situation where you can create information profiles. I as a subject have the right to control this information (actually the same goes for the pure online stuff).
You can find my blog here: https://decodingvibes.com/. It does have an RSS feed and no ads or any kind of tracking or lead forms, etc. Do note it's mostly an entertainment or pop-programming style writing, not something that does deep dives into super technical stuff (mostly because I don't think I am qualified to write something I don't fully understand) but I try to keep it fun!
I assumed that too, back when i thought that getting an e-ink pad would be cool.
Right now Amazon is quoting me $450 on a 10.3" reMarkable, but the price goes up for the 11.8" model and/or for bells and whistles. It looks like an 11" ipad is $450 and up (based on https://www.apple.com/ipad/compare/), although you need to buy the $80-100 iPencil separately.
So yeah - I was hoping that e-ink things would cost less, but they're still pretty expensive and certainly competitive with the iPad.
Well, if there's one company on Earth that's both incentivized to find an algorithm to efficient pack stuff into their shipping bins and also well-financed enough to actually figure out a good linear or quadratic-time algorithm to do so, it's definitely Amazon.
And once they do so they'll have solved two big problems! :)
As someone who worked on logistics optimization algorithms for Amazon, I’ll just say that the one thing Amazon did best was have clueless upper management continuously make poor strategic decisions that continuously nullified all of their improvements from optimization.
What was the root cause of that? (Company consciously prioritized other things than those logistics optimizations? Individual incentives lead to management behavior that was against company's intent? Bad hiring and retention practices for upper management or whomever was informing them?)
They might have the ability to do so. The motivation? Well let me put it this way: I tried Amazon’s grocery delivery service, and stopped using it because everything—everything—kept arriving in its own individual bag regardless of whether it made any sense, so it was just a bunch of bags I had to carry upstairs. That bags also had no handles.
So they were optimizing for something, but it definitely wasn’t packaging efficiency.
Or the alternative that I occasionally encounter with non-grocery items - giant heavy item and small delicate item placed together in same box that is far too large for the both of them. A token piece of packing paper or lone plastic bladder tossed in, free to move about. The entire contents bouncing around.
Another amusing one was when they packed a somewhat delicate pantry food item in a paper envelope. It arrived thoroughly crushed, exactly as one would expect.
Yes. I recently tried ordering a standard cardboard tube box of oats from Amazon, and it arrived crushed and leaking in its presumably nonsterile paper envelope. They gave me a refund and told me to throw it out.
I think this would have been much less likely to happen without the envelope, since whoever packed the truck would intuitively pack the tube vertically.
Yeah but NP Hard bin packing doesn't usually include situations where a flat screen TV squished on top of pallets comes sliding out of the truck when you go to unload...
I've played beyond all reason for a little bit, although I'm not very good at it. I've managed to avoid toxic lobbies by searching for terms like co-op or noob.
I used to think this way too. When I was growing up, libraries were for books.
And that one room where they had periodicals (magazines, newspapers, and such) but you had to read those there in that room.
And encyclopedias, for kids to use for their research reports.
And a story hour for kids (and, let's face it, for the parents).
And that one computer in the back that had Oregon Trail and Summer Olympic Games on it.
But mostly I remembered the books, and that's what I felt like libraries should be about.
Now I feel like a library's purpose is to support it's community. Mostly they lend books because that's what they're known for and they're very good at it. They're expanding into eBooks because that's another big thing people read today. And music CDs and DVDs which is very similar to lending books, and people like those.
Expanding out to lending things is a bit of a mind-bender for me too, but I think it's in line with what libraries have always done - help the community.
I'm torn on this. Often I feel like the parent, but I recognize maybe I'm being stubborn.
You say libraries purpose is to help the community. If that's true, what you're saying makes sense. On the other hand, if their purpose is to promote literacy and reading, well, this is off mission.
I think of the former mission as more being a community center. My mother loves this form and spends a lot of time at her local library. I'm a curmudgeon and an intellectual snob apparently. I don't even like them having popular books, but I'm trying to be less rigid and more honest here and admit that some scope creep is probably healthy and the question is just where you draw the line.
A bank account (or a spread of bank accounts across different banks to stay under the FDIC insurance limit per-account) is way, way, way safer than a flat market cap publicly traded company -- and with the same or perhaps better rate of return. Stocks are "supposed" to give better rates of return than "flat", in exchange for the higher risk.
First people practiced L33t3cod3 problems for interviews
Then people built AIs to build software
And now the AIs are studying L33t3cod3 problems
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